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Against the backdrop of the immense confusion surrounding the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but this past Saturday morning marked its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.

The move to assault another sovereign country and capture its head of state – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a renegade nation.

He believes that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Disregard the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

It is widely rejected the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.

Barely 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.