Moving from Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A unexpected operation on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power announces its plan to rule indefinitely.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be engaged in combat for four years.”

Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where might, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”