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Each time the wind gusts northwest from Belarus, Lithuania prepares for disruptions.

That is when large aerial objects are dispatched across the border, with containers of cheap cigarettes hanging beneath.

Over the recent period, this smuggling operation has forced Lithuania's primary air hub into suspension 15 times, delaying thousands of travellers.

On one occasion, the airspace was shut down entirely for a lengthy 11 hours.

However, the officials are certain they are confronting something far more hostile than mere smugglers.

They state the balloons have been utilized as instruments of provocation in an example of covert aggression by Belarus, an ally of the Kremlin.

State of Alert

The Lithuanian government has declared an official alert.

While balloons have been utilized by smugglers previously, their numbers increased dramatically this October.

"Of course it began as organised crime activity, but we've seen repeatedly how Belarus uses criminal networks to impact bordering nations," a senior official stated.

The official argued the balloons are launched from locations that help them best disrupt Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If you want to make a smuggling operation, you'd do it in the woods or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister reasoned.

Instead, there is a view that the balloons represent a form of coercive pressure on Europe's border region.

"This is viewed as a pressure tool: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really entering the realm of national security."

Nocturnal Operations

Now, every night, security forces deploy in the border zone.

The balloons are primarily seen under cover of darkness.

Patrols set up mobile checkpoints on isolated lanes, inspecting drivers' documents and searching vehicles in search of anyone connected to the smuggling networks.

The balloons travel too high up to make intercepting them with firearms a safe or economic option.

Consequently, the government has announced a €1m prize to any firm that can develop how to intercept them.

For now, teams use advanced tracking systems to monitor the balloons and attempt to catch smugglers at the landing sites.

Soon, new criminal charges for acts of sabotage should also serve as a preventive measure.

Political Objectives

The border itself is now defined by a high security barrier, with security wire and concrete blocks.

This enhanced fortification is a visible indicator of how Lithuania now perceives its neighbour as threatening.

Not far away, the long-time ruler of Belarus has dismissed all talk of hybrid warfare as "nonsense".

He recently attributed the activity to "criminal" smugglers, saying they were simply seeking a profit and finding innovative ways to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania rejects that explanation, partly due to previous incidents.

In 2021, migrants were assisted to cross into Lithuania and Poland in significant quantities, provoking a deliberate crisis.

"Now they are doing a sequence of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, aimed directly at the airport," explained a security official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it immediately. But they don't. That means it benefits them."

The belief is that Belarus is attempting to pressure its way into reducing international restrictions.

"They want to draw diplomatic focus and force us to change our stance on Belarus," is how one minister views the sudden influx of balloons.

The EU has not recognized the Belarusian leader as president following contested votes in 2020 and a subsequent repression.

Sanctions were levied then and tightened later when Belarus aided Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the diplomatic ostracism of the regime and number two, of course, the sanctions," the minister argued.

Consequences for Travel

For now, travellers and airlines face disruptions.

"This is an unprecedented situation for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already moved its charter flights, and another has cut its evening service.

Revenue losses for all impacted companies are estimated to reach €2m by year's end.

"One thing is the extra cost, but the greater concern is if passengers start to lose trust in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers check a dedicated website for wind forecasts and balloon likelihood before booking flights.

"It's not easy, it makes me a anxious. I'd just like to get home as planned," one traveller said.

"I am convinced this is a form of aggression on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really funny to fly those balloons and then mock us."

Her words hint that another aim of such hybrid activity – sowing discontent – is also having an effect, and perhaps harder to defend against.

"This is effectively probing the limits of Nato: looking at how we respond to these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even deal with simple balloons. We're not even equipped for the fundamental challenges."