Day-to-Day Killings in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent In Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Government Data

The mean figure of daily homicides each month in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by recent official figures. Nevertheless, security specialists have advised that murder figures may not point to enhanced countrywide stability.

Notable Drop in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an average of almost 55 killings a day in last November as opposed to roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidential office in the previous September. This data was shared by the head of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in murders that we have seen over these past months is remarkably significant,” the President said, noting that in November the smallest amount of murders were recorded for any November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Intense drug cartel internal conflicts, alongside the administration's heavily military campaigns to combat the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent years. The rate hit a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure over four times greater than the United States. However, murders have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety plan for an seemingly steeper reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the President declared: “There is a plan, we have tracking of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy functions. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The key pillars of the President's safety strategy include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving intelligence and investigation work.
• Greater collaboration between government authorities.

Analyst Caution and Data Limitations

But, security experts warned that relying on murder numbers to paint a picture of peace was problematic. This is notably true considering the increase in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“This would be very good information if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

Per the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the identical timeframe last year. But, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is not valid for gauging the situation of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who lack the capacity or the inclination to accurately identify and categorize remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to mask violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month averages of daily homicides was similarly concerning because it might hide periods when there were especially elevated levels of murders.

“Relying on the per-day mean renders spikes of violence invisible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

An area where the administration can point to the success of its security strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 suspects were detained between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, per official figures. More than 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s highly politically advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Frustration

Yet notwithstanding these measures, Mexico remains beset by extreme bloodshed, with a number of regions in the grip of cartel-related conflict. In the previous month there was a notable murder of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the last 12 months.

A short time later, thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and throughout the country to voice their frustration at corruption and drug violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a way to create a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very potent, from a social perspective it’s very problematic,” the analyst remarked.