Behind this Pageantry of Vladimir Putin's New Delhi Trip: The India-Russia Relationship Which Has Weakened.

The rhetoric and visuals from Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent visit to India spoke of a strong bilateral partnership. Indian PM Narendra Modi welcomed Putin at the tarmac with a embrace, and the statesmen shared a ride together, mirroring a familiar political style. In his comments, Modi called Putin as "my friend" and labeled the Indo-Russian bond as a "guiding star", built on "shared respect and deep trust" that had "weathered the test of time". This marked Putin's tenth visit to India during his quarter-century tenure and his twentieth meeting with Modi after the latter assumed the premiership in 2014.

A Chasm Between Symbolism and Reality

Yet, a significant divide exists between the symbolism and the substance of this relationship. Although Putin vowed "continuous fuel supplies" to India, Indian refiners are actually purchasing less Russian oil in the face of external tariffs and sanctions. The two nations concluded a series of agreements covering migration, health, food security, maritime cooperation, and educational exchanges. However, expected announcements on major military deals did not come to pass. India has not concluded any major defence purchases with Russia following the 2022's invasion of Ukraine, a trend driven by delays in shipments of platforms and spare parts as Moscow prioritizes its own wartime requirements.

A Partnership With Diminished Geopolitical Heft

These developments suggests that the India-Russia relationship no longer carries the identical geopolitical clout it once did. During the Cold War, India enjoyed special trade terms and market access to the Soviet Union and its allies. This unique relationship peaked in 1971 with a Pact of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, signed before a war with Pakistan where Islamabad was supported by the US and China. While both nations have sought to maintain a semblance of this special bond through a "unique and elevated" alliance declared in 2010, the truth is that their interaction lacks the former importance as New Delhi has substantially deepened ties with the West.

Diversification and Underlying Contradictions

New Delhi is not expected to cut its important links with Moscow. Yet, as Western coercion increases on India to curtail its imports of Russian oil, both nations are attempting to broaden the partnership into other areas. On Putin's trip, they announced an joint economic program extending until 2030, aiming to make their ties "more diversified, balanced and long-lasting". This involves improving market access for Indian goods to address a trade imbalance strongly tilted in Russia's favour. Cooperation between the two covers several strategically important fields – from aerospace and atomic energy to defence and agriculture.

Sentimental Bonds and Perceived Dependability

At an ideological plane, a significant amount of closeness with Russia persists, particularly among older cohorts of officials in New Delhi who remember Moscow's crucial support during the Cold War. This has resulted in a certain level of sympathy for the Russian narrative on the Ukraine war. Amid ongoing frictions between India and the US, in which American officials have made sharp comments about the Indian economy, many in India see Russia as a increasingly reliable partner.

This key difficulty, naturally, is the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The comprehensive joint statement issued during Putin's India trip made no reference to Ukraine, even though it paradoxically described the partnership as an "anchor of global peace and stability". Despite Modi's much-touted statement that "now is not the era of war", New Delhi's public steps regarding the conflict have been limited.

Navigating the Circle: New Delhi's Foreign Policy Balancing Act

This dynamic highlights the underlying complexities in India's international stance. The country is poised to finalize a free trade agreement with the EU, following a comparable pact with the UK earlier year. On the sidelines, India, Australia, and Canada declared a three-way technology partnership. There are far more Indian students in the US than in Russia, even as efforts are being made to boost cultural exchanges between India and Russia.

How will India resolve this complex equation? New Delhi will be banking that ongoing talks will bear fruit, leading to a end of fighting and the elimination of a key irritant in its ties with the Western bloc. However, should a peace deal is reached, if it fails of a "fair resolution" that upholds Ukraine's independence and borders, scrutiny of the India-Russia relationship will undoubtedly persist in European and American capitals.